H Heuristics · Research report series
Which choices would most improve humanity's outlook over the rest of the twenty-first century? This series works through that question one report at a time, with public data, stated assumptions and scenarios that are labelled as scenarios.
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The decisive decade to 2035, while the working-age wave in Africa and South Asia is still gathering scale.
The demographic window to 2050, as more than one billion working-age people are added in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Two periods drawn from Report No. 01. A way of thinking about sequencing, not a forecast.
01Latest report
Accelerating Productivity, Income Growth and Development Across Emerging Economies (2026–2100)
A synthesis of theory, data and scenarios arguing that global economic convergence can be treated as an achievable development objective, advanced through technology diffusion, human capital, modern infrastructure, economic complexity and institutional reform.
02What the series asks
The century can become more dangerous while lives still improve, if development reduces exposure and vulnerability faster than hazards grow.
The series asks which choices do the most to make that happen. Each report takes one part of the question and works it through with public data: where the gains are largest, which interventions pay several dividends at once, what should come first, and how progress can be counted in lives and in years of deprivation avoided. The concepts used are proposed frameworks, open to testing and revision.
Closing the gap between richer and developing economies without repeating the environmental damage of past growth.
Getting proven technologies and practices, from clean cooking to digital public infrastructure, to the people who do not yet have them.
Where most future population growth, development opportunity and climate vulnerability meet, and where the century will largely be decided.
Reducing exposure to interconnected crises before they strike, and counting the lives and person-years of deprivation avoided.
03The scenarios
04The series
No. 01 opens the series. Further reports are published one at a time, and each gets its own page here with its abstract, metadata and full PDF. New reports are announced on the RSS feed.
